Taking on New Zealand anyone?

Right, time for part 2 of my rugby world cup trading preview and with minutes to go before the tournament kicks off lets get straight to it.

New Zealand are overwhelming favourites here but then they have been overwhelming favourites in practically every single world cup since the first one in 1987.  Another element that you need to factor into the mix is that they are hosts and hosts have historically faired very well in this Tournament:

  

• New Zealand 1987 - Won by New Zealand   
• England 1991 -England runners up
• South Africa 1995 - Won by South Africa
• Wales 1999 - Wales 1/4 finals
• Australia 2003 - Australia runners up
• France 2007 - France - semi finals

As you can see host nations have an astonishingly good record and as New Zealand are already ranked no.1 in the world you can see the bigger picture starting to develop. This picture though, in my own opinion does not even begin to tell the whole story; the question is, are New Zealand really worthy of an odds on price of 1.67?

NO is the answer. New Zealand are historical bottlers, they seem to almost always choke in the later stages regardless of how pretty they look during the pool matches where they are basically playing against part timers. Clearly they are a dangerous outfit and are capable of beating anyone but they are usual under so  much pressure from an expectant nation that a complete mental collapse is normally not far away - which has been the case in each of the last 5 world cups.


The question is that as they have found the pressure too much being favourites in previous world cups how do i think they will cope witht the added pressure of being at home?

Now, i am not saying lay New Zealand - yet anyway, because their first 2 games should be pretty straight forward and I am almost sure that New Zealand's price will come in further after everyone jumps on the pretty rugby bandwagon. In actual fact you could probably back them early on and lay off after an expected good start.  The real test will be in their 3rd pool game against France who seem to have a bit of sign over the all blacks. This is a team that have knocked New Zealand out twice in the last 3 world cups and just seem to know how to stop the all blacks’ fast and expansive play.

Another concern i have with the legitimacy of a New Zealand assault on the title is that in all the years of watching sport i am not sure any team has gone into a world cup in any sport and won it after suffering back to back defeats. That’s right...the force that is New Zealand lost twice in a row coming into this tournament, firstly against South Africa and then a week later against Australia - granted there were some major changes with the squad but nonetheless a pre world cup loss can never be a good thing and losing 2 in a row is almost unheard of although the damage this may have done is yet be known.

Basically, what I am suggesting, however mad it may sound is that New Zealand will not win this world cup and I will 100% be laying them, like mentioned after the first 2 group games to maximise value. Even if there were to beat France which they may well do I feel that France will still expose some weaknesses which in Rugby, is almost seen as a loss when it comes to pool matches thus pushing New Zealand’s price out for us.

Contrary to what you may now be thinking, there are other teams in this world cup, other teams that have expectations in their own right. England are a strange team when it comes to World Cups, strange in the sense that regardless of the form they show coming into the tournament they are always there or there about.

Similar to Germany in the football world cups, no matter what type of form they are showing in the build up, they know how to play knockout football and will undoubtedly peak at exactly the right time. England know how to play knockout rugby - look at the last world cup in 2007, England were massively out of form and not playing anywhere near what they were capable of but fast forward a month or so and they were lining up in the final against South Africa which baring a very controversial disallowed try could have seen England retaining the title. 

Simply put, 17.00 is far too big a price for the 3 time finalists and a team that know their way around the business end of a world cup. 

There is a very high chance of playing France in the quarter finals but in the reverse of the France v New Zealand fixtures, England appear to have an almost identical hold on the French knocking them out of both of the last 2 world cups and watching the Le Bleus mentally fall apart before our very eyes. Australia are also a heavily fancied team having twice won before but like France, England have also knocked them out of the last 2 world cups which has really damaged the ego of an otherwise very strong sporting nation. 

This only really leaves South Africa as the only other team with a realistic chance and a chance which I honestly think has been undervalued. This is a super strong squad with talent right through the entire 15. Like Australia, have won twice before, are the holders and in an effort that would have not done their confidence any harm coming into the world cup - beat New Zealand in the summer.

The strength of these 5 is really illustrated by the prices for any other team bar one of these to win with Ireland next at a mere 75.00 which in my mind may as well be 750.00 such is the likelihood.

To summarise:

Here are some scenarios that I think have potential to prove profitable over the coming weeks.

• Laying New Zealand in outright market either now at 1.67 or after their first 2 games at around 1.5 - 1.55
• Back England at 16.00 - 18.00 and look to lay off at semi final stage - performance dependant.

I will be definitely be looking at trading some of the tighter games in play where you can get a feel for the game within the first few minutes and then make a decision whether it will be high scoring, low scoring, a kicking battle, free flowing the handicap and winning margin markets, total match tries and total match points. 

These are all very tradable markets and like always you don't have to be right as we aren't betting, we just need to get the pendulum swinging in our favour and then exit our position and enjoy the rest of the game.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

Regards

Fluffnut