Chelsea v Barcelona

Well, tonight's champions league semi final features Chelsea against Barcelona and on paper looks a mouth watering tie. The only problem we have is deciding how we are going to make money from it. Chelsea are an unprecedented 5.5 to back on betfair and i cannot remember seeing them at such a big price at home before ever. I appreciate they are playing the top footballing club side on the planet but they are not a 9/2 shot against anyone, especially at the bridge.

A couple of solid looking markets that have some appeal and i may look further into are:

• Over 2.5 - currently 1.93 (Barcelona games normally average about 1.4/1.5ish)

• Barcelona to qualify - available to lay @ 1.19. (this is far to low with an away leg to play first in my opinion and i believe this will be a profitable trade and easily greened up during the first leg depending on how the game is progressing)

• Over 3.5 looks like it may be worth a squeak @ 3.3 and lay off after a couple, again, depending on how the game is progressing.  

•  Lay 0-0 HT @ 3.4. Once more Barcelona games are normally much higher than this so i feel that advantage needs to be taken with such low liability compared to an average Barce game. Chelsea are also more than capable of finding the net multiple times in Europe at home and have the fire power to hurt the Spaniards very vulnerable back line.

• There is always the possibility of either backing Chelsea at their current high price and laying off later on or laying Barce, whichever is your preference. ( you won't be seeing these 2 teams being quoted at 5.5 and 1.74 respectively very often.

• Of course laying the draw is always an option although this might not be too profitable should Chelsea take the lead as they are the dog and draw price may not contract as much as expected. 

These are all obvious options for the game tonight although i am probably more inclined to go with over 3.5 or over 2.5 options as i feel there is a great deal of risk in trading either team. If i had to trade one team i would be backing Chelsea now and laying off pre-kick off or during game. I think they have a better chance tonight, particularly being at home then their price would suggest and surely if they are to progress from this tie overall they would HAVE to get a result tonight to have any chance going to Spain.

Whatever market you ultimately decide to get involved with good luck and here's to greening up.

Regards
Fluffnut

Taking on New Zealand anyone?

Right, time for part 2 of my rugby world cup trading preview and with minutes to go before the tournament kicks off lets get straight to it.

New Zealand are overwhelming favourites here but then they have been overwhelming favourites in practically every single world cup since the first one in 1987.  Another element that you need to factor into the mix is that they are hosts and hosts have historically faired very well in this Tournament:

  

• New Zealand 1987 - Won by New Zealand   
• England 1991 -England runners up
• South Africa 1995 - Won by South Africa
• Wales 1999 - Wales 1/4 finals
• Australia 2003 - Australia runners up
• France 2007 - France - semi finals

As you can see host nations have an astonishingly good record and as New Zealand are already ranked no.1 in the world you can see the bigger picture starting to develop. This picture though, in my own opinion does not even begin to tell the whole story; the question is, are New Zealand really worthy of an odds on price of 1.67?

NO is the answer. New Zealand are historical bottlers, they seem to almost always choke in the later stages regardless of how pretty they look during the pool matches where they are basically playing against part timers. Clearly they are a dangerous outfit and are capable of beating anyone but they are usual under so  much pressure from an expectant nation that a complete mental collapse is normally not far away - which has been the case in each of the last 5 world cups.


The question is that as they have found the pressure too much being favourites in previous world cups how do i think they will cope witht the added pressure of being at home?

Now, i am not saying lay New Zealand - yet anyway, because their first 2 games should be pretty straight forward and I am almost sure that New Zealand's price will come in further after everyone jumps on the pretty rugby bandwagon. In actual fact you could probably back them early on and lay off after an expected good start.  The real test will be in their 3rd pool game against France who seem to have a bit of sign over the all blacks. This is a team that have knocked New Zealand out twice in the last 3 world cups and just seem to know how to stop the all blacks’ fast and expansive play.

Another concern i have with the legitimacy of a New Zealand assault on the title is that in all the years of watching sport i am not sure any team has gone into a world cup in any sport and won it after suffering back to back defeats. That’s right...the force that is New Zealand lost twice in a row coming into this tournament, firstly against South Africa and then a week later against Australia - granted there were some major changes with the squad but nonetheless a pre world cup loss can never be a good thing and losing 2 in a row is almost unheard of although the damage this may have done is yet be known.

Basically, what I am suggesting, however mad it may sound is that New Zealand will not win this world cup and I will 100% be laying them, like mentioned after the first 2 group games to maximise value. Even if there were to beat France which they may well do I feel that France will still expose some weaknesses which in Rugby, is almost seen as a loss when it comes to pool matches thus pushing New Zealand’s price out for us.

Contrary to what you may now be thinking, there are other teams in this world cup, other teams that have expectations in their own right. England are a strange team when it comes to World Cups, strange in the sense that regardless of the form they show coming into the tournament they are always there or there about.

Similar to Germany in the football world cups, no matter what type of form they are showing in the build up, they know how to play knockout football and will undoubtedly peak at exactly the right time. England know how to play knockout rugby - look at the last world cup in 2007, England were massively out of form and not playing anywhere near what they were capable of but fast forward a month or so and they were lining up in the final against South Africa which baring a very controversial disallowed try could have seen England retaining the title. 

Simply put, 17.00 is far too big a price for the 3 time finalists and a team that know their way around the business end of a world cup. 

There is a very high chance of playing France in the quarter finals but in the reverse of the France v New Zealand fixtures, England appear to have an almost identical hold on the French knocking them out of both of the last 2 world cups and watching the Le Bleus mentally fall apart before our very eyes. Australia are also a heavily fancied team having twice won before but like France, England have also knocked them out of the last 2 world cups which has really damaged the ego of an otherwise very strong sporting nation. 

This only really leaves South Africa as the only other team with a realistic chance and a chance which I honestly think has been undervalued. This is a super strong squad with talent right through the entire 15. Like Australia, have won twice before, are the holders and in an effort that would have not done their confidence any harm coming into the world cup - beat New Zealand in the summer.

The strength of these 5 is really illustrated by the prices for any other team bar one of these to win with Ireland next at a mere 75.00 which in my mind may as well be 750.00 such is the likelihood.

To summarise:

Here are some scenarios that I think have potential to prove profitable over the coming weeks.

• Laying New Zealand in outright market either now at 1.67 or after their first 2 games at around 1.5 - 1.55
• Back England at 16.00 - 18.00 and look to lay off at semi final stage - performance dependant.

I will be definitely be looking at trading some of the tighter games in play where you can get a feel for the game within the first few minutes and then make a decision whether it will be high scoring, low scoring, a kicking battle, free flowing the handicap and winning margin markets, total match tries and total match points. 

These are all very tradable markets and like always you don't have to be right as we aren't betting, we just need to get the pendulum swinging in our favour and then exit our position and enjoy the rest of the game.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

Regards

Fluffnut

Effects the draw has on markets.

Just thought i would add a little note on the effects the champions league draw have had on some of the markets today.

I mentioned in a previous post some ideas that, if implemented in a proper and sensible manner could prove profitable even though a ball will not be kicked  for another 2-3 weeks.

Example:

I talked of the attractive price associated with Manchester City, which at the time of writing  was 23.00 to back on Betfair. I also stated that in my opinion a collapse of this price was inevitable. I accept that the group could have been a little easier but then it could also have been alot worse. The positive way in which they have started their domestic season has clearly helped matters but as far as i am concerned this was expected with the money they have at their dispossal and the quality they have bought in.

Manchester City's price is now available to lay at 16.0 which is a mildly lucrative collapse of 7.0. To expand on the opportunity this has created... A £100 back on City at 23.00 would enable either a £100 lay at 16.00 giving us a risk free position of +£700 on Man City winning the tournament (which you could lay off again further into the competition if you like) or we could lay £143.75 at the current 16.00 which would lock in £43.75 on every eventuality. Not bad considering we have not had to watch a single ball kicked to allow this trade.

Another couple of potential trades of note which i mentioned in the previous post are:

• Inter milan - Backed @ 40.00, can now lay @ 34.00 which would create either +£600 on Inter winning or +£16.65 across the board. (based on £100 stakes)

• Lyon - Backed @ 300.00, can now lay @ 200.00 which would create either a massive +£10,000 on Lyon winning or +£50.00 across the board. (based £100 stakes)

In the case of Lyon, liquidity would not allow you to execute this trade in a single order so you would need to drip feed the order into the market untill is has been completely matched. This would give you 2-3 weeks to complete the trade which in my opinion would be ample time as liquidity would increase the closer to the off we get.

In the time i have been writing this Manchester City's price has moved even further in our favour from a lay price of 16.00 to 15.5 which in the above examples would increase profit to £750.00 and £48.39 respectively.

These perfect trading opportunities present themselves more often than you may think, the key is spotting the potential in future markets and becoming comfortable with the variables that make these markets move a long time before the event goes live.

Good luck in your trading.

Regards
Fluffnut

Champs league 2011/2012

I have been looking at a few of the champions league prices lately and can't help but take notice of the price being quoted for Manchester City. I honestly think they look an attractive price at 23.00 on Betfair, granted they are untested at this level but if they start the season well with the players they are talking about bringing in, like Aguero ,Sneijder and Nasri etc bearing in mind their first 6 league games are Swansea, Bolton, Spurs, Wigan, Fulham and Everton, not the toughest i am sure you will agree. They will also need a kind draw but i don't think 23's will be around long, i for one will be looking at laying them off a little later.

In fact i think other than the first 4 in the betting there are a few overpriced teams. Inter @ 40's is another or maybe you fancy one of the french teams to get to the later stages, I wouldn't say a french team will win it but at these prices:-

• Lille - 270.00
• Marseille - 250.00
• Lyon - 300.00

I wouldn't bet against one or two of them reaching the knockout stages,in which case you won't be getting quoted 250's plus.

The golden rule when taking a long position in an anti-post market is remember, you are a trader and the trader cares about profits, he does not care being right or wrong one little bit. If you can keep this mindset when going long and not be tempted into thinking the price has collapsed lets see if they can win it or one more round or anything other than exiting and collecting a profit then you will go far.

Anti-post markets present some fantastic opportunities  for the trader, especially pre-season as the prices have to go one of 2 ways (pedantic people will say all prices have to do this) what i mean is they will certainly move and with so long to go before the event, season in this case, there is no way of telling what is around the corner, signings, departures, injuries, takeovers or suspensions - I could go on.

The point is, the statistics and opinions that these prices are based on are the most vague and loose prices you will see at any time in the sporting calender. Bookmakers are good yes, but they cannot see the future - well not a year into the future when not seeing a ball kicked for 3 months and not seeing the new teams squads play a single game or even who will be in those squads etc etc etc

To summarise.

• Look for prices you deem to be far too good an opportunity to turn down.
• If the trade is good, it will find you and make it almost impossible not to enter. ( your trading instincts should take over)
• Never treat an anti-post position as a "bet" going long requires the same discipline as any other trade, just because it seems so far away from now, that time will come sooner than you think so have an exit strategy in place.
• It's not about being right with your selections it is about using the selection to position yourself in a profitable situation.

       And finally,

• Green is for show, exits are for dough.

Regards
Fluffnut.

Pigeonholing sportsmen - advantage or a hindrance?

I have been doing a lot of thinking lately and am trying to work out if putting certain players down as having a particular mentality when the pressure is on is a good thing or if it is best to just base decisions on what is currently happening as players mindset will undoubtedly change at different times of their careers and in some cases even vary between competitions.

A good example is Rory McIlroy. After watching him completely smash the field to pieces in the first 3 rounds of the masters earlier in the year only to capitulate on the last day, i instantly put him in the "bottler" section of sportsmen. The benefit of putting players in pigeon holes is that markets almost never factor this into the prices they offer thus the shrewd trader can spot these opportunities and if necessary take a position based on this past information.

After the masters nightmare for McIlroy i thought to myself this knowledge could prove very useful if or when he found himself in a similar scenario and so straight away began looking towards the us open and dreaming of a situation where in my opinion McIlroy's price was far too low.

After literally tearing away from the opposition with golf that was widely described as "from another planet" i kept a keen eye on his price and saw he was about 1.47 with 36 holes still to play. Now, bearing in mind what happened only 2 months previous, you could not be blamed for thinking,exactly as i did that this was far too short a price for a man that had literally fallen apart in front of our very eyes as recently as he had.

On this occasion, I did not take a position as upon further inspection I noticed some massive differences between how he was playing and how he played after leading at the Masters in Augusta. He had an aura about him this time and you could almost sense the confidence being transmitted through your TV into your living room with palpable realism. The swagger that had deserted him was back and it was back in abundance, this was a completely different player who was clearly in a much better place mentally. It was as if he was drawing on the pain and heartache of Augusta and playing like he never wanted to experience these feeling again.

Still....saying all this, in hindsight i regret not trading his price as i thought it presented a massive opportunity and although it would have proved fruitless i would have been sensible enough to exit after he started so well in the 4th round, probably ensuring a big loss if anyone else won and zero loss if McIlroy won as the way he was finishing, the odds on crumbling again (although he was further ahead by this point than he was in the masters) were slim to none.

So, does it pay to pigeonhole sportsmen based on past performances? Taking into account the mental elements (rather than past results as basically all prices are based on past results anyway.) I tend to lean towards wanting to factor them in as I think they give priceless information for taking up future positions. The reason i bring this up is the completely different results you would have have had with McIlroy in the last 2 majors taking up identical positions, at identical times and prices in identical conditions.

To conclude, i think that using any information can only help decision making but the type of sport dictates the type of information you should use, i.e. mental strength is going to play a bigger role in individual sports like golf or tennis than it will in team sports such as football and rugby. In my mind this can only be beneficial and is a tool i will definitely be adding to my repertoire although when to employ this information still seems to be very much open to debate.

Does not get any easier does it!!

Regards
Fluffnut