Chelsea v Barcelona

Well, tonight's champions league semi final features Chelsea against Barcelona and on paper looks a mouth watering tie. The only problem we have is deciding how we are going to make money from it. Chelsea are an unprecedented 5.5 to back on betfair and i cannot remember seeing them at such a big price at home before ever. I appreciate they are playing the top footballing club side on the planet but they are not a 9/2 shot against anyone, especially at the bridge.

A couple of solid looking markets that have some appeal and i may look further into are:

• Over 2.5 - currently 1.93 (Barcelona games normally average about 1.4/1.5ish)

• Barcelona to qualify - available to lay @ 1.19. (this is far to low with an away leg to play first in my opinion and i believe this will be a profitable trade and easily greened up during the first leg depending on how the game is progressing)

• Over 3.5 looks like it may be worth a squeak @ 3.3 and lay off after a couple, again, depending on how the game is progressing.  

•  Lay 0-0 HT @ 3.4. Once more Barcelona games are normally much higher than this so i feel that advantage needs to be taken with such low liability compared to an average Barce game. Chelsea are also more than capable of finding the net multiple times in Europe at home and have the fire power to hurt the Spaniards very vulnerable back line.

• There is always the possibility of either backing Chelsea at their current high price and laying off later on or laying Barce, whichever is your preference. ( you won't be seeing these 2 teams being quoted at 5.5 and 1.74 respectively very often.

• Of course laying the draw is always an option although this might not be too profitable should Chelsea take the lead as they are the dog and draw price may not contract as much as expected. 

These are all obvious options for the game tonight although i am probably more inclined to go with over 3.5 or over 2.5 options as i feel there is a great deal of risk in trading either team. If i had to trade one team i would be backing Chelsea now and laying off pre-kick off or during game. I think they have a better chance tonight, particularly being at home then their price would suggest and surely if they are to progress from this tie overall they would HAVE to get a result tonight to have any chance going to Spain.

Whatever market you ultimately decide to get involved with good luck and here's to greening up.

Regards
Fluffnut

Barcelona too short??

Im going to keep this brief as kick off is only minutes away but all week i just can't find a good reason to back Barcelona tonight aganst Milan and due to this i will definetly be laying Barce, currently 1.25-1.26 but even slighty lower in the "to qualify" market - 1.22-1.23. The price would be understandable if playing a european minnow but they are playing Milan for god sake and i honeslty think the prices are completely wrong for this game tonight. They haven't even got the luxury of an away goal to play with so anything Milan do Barcelona will have to beter and i don't think they will.

Lay Barcelona to qualify @ what is now 1.22 and get out at expected profit range or whatever criteria it is you use.

Regards
Fluffnut

Midweek internationals

this week sees lots of international fixtures be them friendlies or u21 qualifiers there should be lots of decent trading opportunities for us to try and exploit.

Some games of note which i believe have a high chance of profit in the overs market (2.5)

• Rep Ire v Czech Rep. Over 2.5  - 2.72
• Germany v France. Over 2.5 - 2.04
• Greece v Belgium Over 2.5 - 2.6

Even the England game could prove a suprise to many, although i think the trade for this game is laying the draw early on and backing it back for equal stakes looking to green up a little later should an equaliser come. This is one of my favourite trades to do as you only need 1 goal to completely eradicate the possibility of any loss while at the same time really maximising any profits as you don't hedge until the 3rd bet.

If its value you are after then i think the USA are probably slightly over priced at a very appealing 7.2. Yes i appreciate we are talking about USA and football in the same sentence but Italy are not a shadow of their former selves and i reckon there are several ticks to be made in this. Whether you want to lay Italy rather than backing USA is completely up to you although laying Italy would keep liability down as they are currently priced at 1.68 to lay. I wouldn't advice staying in this too long though as not sure USA will keep them out for the duration, however,i am anticipating a closer game than the exchanges would have you believe.

Thats it for now, good luck if getting involved in any of tonights games. I may be back a bit later with some more opinions but for now, good evening.

Regards
Fluffnut

Monday night football.

Liverpool v Spurs.

In my opinion this game has goals written all over it and after a weekend of some pretty high scoring games i see another on the cards at Anfield tonight. I am expecting a cagey opening however so will be looking at backing over 2.5 after 7-8 mins or so depending on how things are moving along.

Current price on over 2.5 is 1.91 so i think i will be trying to hold put for atleast even money with a view to laying it of somewhere in the 2nd half and shifting all of the green onto overs with zero liability on unders.

Thats my plan anyway will let you know the outcome of tonights trades once we are off. Another tempting trade is the "old" LTD but will be backing the draw after 1st goal for same stake giving maximum return on draw and zero on a winner and then if an equaliser comes green up for huge returns and if no goal then liability is already at 0.00 anyway. Just need that 1st goal.

Good luck all who get involved in tonights game and lets hope for a corker.

Regards
Fluffnut