A day to forget

Yesterday i experienced one of my worst days for a long long time and while i am relunctant to share, i feel people that read blogs deserve the truth at all times otherwise it defeats the object of the blog and risks turning into a mist of successful trade after successful trade which isn't realsitic or reflective of fulltime trading. This said, the losses i endured yesterday far outweighed my own personal risk and am still analyising why this happened.

Anyway, like i said this is all about the losses so lets have a look.

Other than getting up a little earlier to watch the rugby it was a pretty normal Saturday, i had done the vast majority of my research the night before so i already had a good idea of what i was trading, what markets i were gettng involved with and the strategies i were to employ. All that remained to consider was team selections and any other news throughout the morning that may effect my trades.

The first trades were over 2.5 goals in both Dunfermline v Rangers and Man City v Everton. I was able to trade the first to expiry as it was 3-0 by about 50mins so never went into the red after the first goal which came in the 9th minute - Great trade. The next though was not so straight forward i entered at about 1.74 as city have scored for fun at home this season thorughout the 90 mins not just good starters or finishers. Now, i realise i should have exited at half-time - 50mins ish but as mentioned City goals have been spread relatively evenly with an emphasis probably on the 2nd half - v spurs 2-0ht/ 5-1ft -  v wigan 1-0ht/3-0ft. It was due to this that i felt pretty comfortable holding my position for a little while. The goal finally came with about 20mins left as city had started to turn the screw. This is the second point that i should have exited by still i stayed in. From this point on it was a case of watching my red increase and although City scored again and also had another ruled out it was too late and i just had to swallow the loss. I was kicking myself for the next 15mins as it was my own fault for not getting out and was really amateurish behaviour.

No time for self sabotage it was approcahing 3pm and time for the the next trades. A couple i had identified were Chelsea v Swansea over 3.5 at about 2.7 and Arsenal v Bolton over 3.5 at a similar price. Chelsea went off like a steam train and were 2-0 up after 36 mins which is exctly what i wanted, however, although an exit would have shown a 40% ROI i thought that staying in was the best tactic as they were looking very good and it was not even half time. One thing i did not anticipate though was the sending off of Torres - 3 mins after Chelsea had gone 2-0 up. This completely devastated Chelseas price and i ended up exiting just after half time for a 10% loss on my original stake. As we know Chelsea went on to score another 2 goals as well as Swansea scoring a concelation. Not much we can do in situations like these as the 2nd half goals were all relatively late and a red card will drasitcally change things.

Arsenal v Swansea was another bad experience as in hind sight i should have gotten out at half time when 0-0 for a manageable loss. I stayed in and when Arsenal did score had yet another chance to exit with a reduced loss, i finally exited for a 40% loss on investment only to watch on as Bolton were reduced to 10 men 3 minutes after my exit. I then entered in the over 2.5 goal market this time as Arsenal can be ruthless against 10 men, arsenal did score and their price bounced around in profit for a little while. I thought i would use this profit as leverage for another goal and increased profit but exited at 85mins for a small gain. Obviously the way my day had gone so far, Arsenal scored a 3rd a couple of minutes later.

The biggest loss came in the days final game, Stoke v Utd. Got my strategy horribly wrong and have suffered since!!! I will explain this game in detail later on.

I think that this was due to a collection of reasons though, primarily a result of suffereing consecutive losses probably, losses which could have been avaoided if i exited at the correct points or losses which would not have been losses had i stayed in longer...

....note to self: Concentrate on finding a balance between these two.

Don't know the answer but why is it that after we take a couple of hits trading do we get all philosophical about it like we are some sort of spiritual guru??

Perhaps it helps ease the discomfort losses bring...i don't know... certainly doesn't excuse the losses though.

Regards
Fluffnut

Taking on New Zealand anyone?

Right, time for part 2 of my rugby world cup trading preview and with minutes to go before the tournament kicks off lets get straight to it.

New Zealand are overwhelming favourites here but then they have been overwhelming favourites in practically every single world cup since the first one in 1987.  Another element that you need to factor into the mix is that they are hosts and hosts have historically faired very well in this Tournament:

  

• New Zealand 1987 - Won by New Zealand   
• England 1991 -England runners up
• South Africa 1995 - Won by South Africa
• Wales 1999 - Wales 1/4 finals
• Australia 2003 - Australia runners up
• France 2007 - France - semi finals

As you can see host nations have an astonishingly good record and as New Zealand are already ranked no.1 in the world you can see the bigger picture starting to develop. This picture though, in my own opinion does not even begin to tell the whole story; the question is, are New Zealand really worthy of an odds on price of 1.67?

NO is the answer. New Zealand are historical bottlers, they seem to almost always choke in the later stages regardless of how pretty they look during the pool matches where they are basically playing against part timers. Clearly they are a dangerous outfit and are capable of beating anyone but they are usual under so  much pressure from an expectant nation that a complete mental collapse is normally not far away - which has been the case in each of the last 5 world cups.


The question is that as they have found the pressure too much being favourites in previous world cups how do i think they will cope witht the added pressure of being at home?

Now, i am not saying lay New Zealand - yet anyway, because their first 2 games should be pretty straight forward and I am almost sure that New Zealand's price will come in further after everyone jumps on the pretty rugby bandwagon. In actual fact you could probably back them early on and lay off after an expected good start.  The real test will be in their 3rd pool game against France who seem to have a bit of sign over the all blacks. This is a team that have knocked New Zealand out twice in the last 3 world cups and just seem to know how to stop the all blacks’ fast and expansive play.

Another concern i have with the legitimacy of a New Zealand assault on the title is that in all the years of watching sport i am not sure any team has gone into a world cup in any sport and won it after suffering back to back defeats. That’s right...the force that is New Zealand lost twice in a row coming into this tournament, firstly against South Africa and then a week later against Australia - granted there were some major changes with the squad but nonetheless a pre world cup loss can never be a good thing and losing 2 in a row is almost unheard of although the damage this may have done is yet be known.

Basically, what I am suggesting, however mad it may sound is that New Zealand will not win this world cup and I will 100% be laying them, like mentioned after the first 2 group games to maximise value. Even if there were to beat France which they may well do I feel that France will still expose some weaknesses which in Rugby, is almost seen as a loss when it comes to pool matches thus pushing New Zealand’s price out for us.

Contrary to what you may now be thinking, there are other teams in this world cup, other teams that have expectations in their own right. England are a strange team when it comes to World Cups, strange in the sense that regardless of the form they show coming into the tournament they are always there or there about.

Similar to Germany in the football world cups, no matter what type of form they are showing in the build up, they know how to play knockout football and will undoubtedly peak at exactly the right time. England know how to play knockout rugby - look at the last world cup in 2007, England were massively out of form and not playing anywhere near what they were capable of but fast forward a month or so and they were lining up in the final against South Africa which baring a very controversial disallowed try could have seen England retaining the title. 

Simply put, 17.00 is far too big a price for the 3 time finalists and a team that know their way around the business end of a world cup. 

There is a very high chance of playing France in the quarter finals but in the reverse of the France v New Zealand fixtures, England appear to have an almost identical hold on the French knocking them out of both of the last 2 world cups and watching the Le Bleus mentally fall apart before our very eyes. Australia are also a heavily fancied team having twice won before but like France, England have also knocked them out of the last 2 world cups which has really damaged the ego of an otherwise very strong sporting nation. 

This only really leaves South Africa as the only other team with a realistic chance and a chance which I honestly think has been undervalued. This is a super strong squad with talent right through the entire 15. Like Australia, have won twice before, are the holders and in an effort that would have not done their confidence any harm coming into the world cup - beat New Zealand in the summer.

The strength of these 5 is really illustrated by the prices for any other team bar one of these to win with Ireland next at a mere 75.00 which in my mind may as well be 750.00 such is the likelihood.

To summarise:

Here are some scenarios that I think have potential to prove profitable over the coming weeks.

• Laying New Zealand in outright market either now at 1.67 or after their first 2 games at around 1.5 - 1.55
• Back England at 16.00 - 18.00 and look to lay off at semi final stage - performance dependant.

I will be definitely be looking at trading some of the tighter games in play where you can get a feel for the game within the first few minutes and then make a decision whether it will be high scoring, low scoring, a kicking battle, free flowing the handicap and winning margin markets, total match tries and total match points. 

These are all very tradable markets and like always you don't have to be right as we aren't betting, we just need to get the pendulum swinging in our favour and then exit our position and enjoy the rest of the game.

Good luck in whatever you decide.

Regards

Fluffnut

Rugby world cup 2011

The RWC 2011 is almost here after 4 years of waiting, 4 years that hasn't really seen any dramatic changes in the world of rugby union. Nonetheless the RWC represents some great sport, which, after the precession that the pool stages usually are guarantees some tremendous excitement, drama and lots of nail biting tension which is certainly not for the faint hearted.

Yes rugby is sometimes regarded as a sport for the hardcore fans but the showpiece which is the world cup inevitably brings with it fans that would otherwise not even think of watching club rugby, this can only be a good thing for the sport and I am sure there may well be sports traders getting involved for the sole fact that is going to be on our screens for next few weeks. (This isn't something I would recommend as rugby is more difficult to trade than you may think) All this aside, I am a massive fan of rugby and would like to share my thoughts - trading wise, on what promises to be a "proper" spectacle.

The problem with trading international rugby, mainly the world cup is that there are many lesser nations taking part that are there to "unofficially" make up the numbers. This may sound a little harsh but you have to remember this is only the 7th RWC since it's inception in 1987. Only four countries have ever lifted the Webb Ellis trophy. Arguably, a more startling fact is that only 5 countries have ever competed in the final - The four winners, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, England plus twice beaten finalists - France. These 5 countries between them have created somewhat of a 24 year monopoly on the international rugby scene.

To put this into perspective, the FIFA World Cup final has been contested by 6 completely different countries in the last 3 finals.

So, why is this a problem?? Well.... take the first game of this year’s tournament. World Cup hosts and odds on favourites for the title New Zealand kick off the action tomorrow morning against Tonga.

Now, Tonga are ranked 12th in the world on the official IRB world rankings and so are obviously nowhere near the worst team in a competition containing 20 nations. Tonga’s best ever performance was twice finishing 3rd in their 5 team pool and so have never gone beyond the pool stages.

I realise we are yet to get to the real hardcore trading discussion but in my opinion this is all very relevant if you are going to trade the RWC.

Back to trading....so what price New Zealand for this particular match?? 1.50....1.30....1.10 or even 1.05????

“Unbackable”....that’s the price of a New Zealand win, you cannot even get a price, 1.01 to lay. This goes a long way in illustrating my point that trading international rugby can sometimes present a problem, this isn't always the case as the 6 nations and tri-nations are very competitive but it certainly affects the early stages of the world cup.

This sadly will not be an isolated event as there will probably be around 5 or 6 “unbackable” favourites and countless 1.01 and 1.02 shots during the pool matches such is the gulf in class. What we as traders need to do, is try and spot other markets with trading potential and capitalise on this potential.

I am going to talk about some strategies that I think could prove most profitable during this tournament in my next post to avoid making this too long. I have covered the main areas of what to expect and really aimed this post at rugby trading newbies to give a general feel of the markets and why some of the prices we will encounter seem so lopsided.

Look out for my next post going up shortly.

Regards

Fluffnut

Effects the draw has on markets.

Just thought i would add a little note on the effects the champions league draw have had on some of the markets today.

I mentioned in a previous post some ideas that, if implemented in a proper and sensible manner could prove profitable even though a ball will not be kicked  for another 2-3 weeks.

Example:

I talked of the attractive price associated with Manchester City, which at the time of writing  was 23.00 to back on Betfair. I also stated that in my opinion a collapse of this price was inevitable. I accept that the group could have been a little easier but then it could also have been alot worse. The positive way in which they have started their domestic season has clearly helped matters but as far as i am concerned this was expected with the money they have at their dispossal and the quality they have bought in.

Manchester City's price is now available to lay at 16.0 which is a mildly lucrative collapse of 7.0. To expand on the opportunity this has created... A £100 back on City at 23.00 would enable either a £100 lay at 16.00 giving us a risk free position of +£700 on Man City winning the tournament (which you could lay off again further into the competition if you like) or we could lay £143.75 at the current 16.00 which would lock in £43.75 on every eventuality. Not bad considering we have not had to watch a single ball kicked to allow this trade.

Another couple of potential trades of note which i mentioned in the previous post are:

• Inter milan - Backed @ 40.00, can now lay @ 34.00 which would create either +£600 on Inter winning or +£16.65 across the board. (based on £100 stakes)

• Lyon - Backed @ 300.00, can now lay @ 200.00 which would create either a massive +£10,000 on Lyon winning or +£50.00 across the board. (based £100 stakes)

In the case of Lyon, liquidity would not allow you to execute this trade in a single order so you would need to drip feed the order into the market untill is has been completely matched. This would give you 2-3 weeks to complete the trade which in my opinion would be ample time as liquidity would increase the closer to the off we get.

In the time i have been writing this Manchester City's price has moved even further in our favour from a lay price of 16.00 to 15.5 which in the above examples would increase profit to £750.00 and £48.39 respectively.

These perfect trading opportunities present themselves more often than you may think, the key is spotting the potential in future markets and becoming comfortable with the variables that make these markets move a long time before the event goes live.

Good luck in your trading.

Regards
Fluffnut

Champs league 2011/2012

I have been looking at a few of the champions league prices lately and can't help but take notice of the price being quoted for Manchester City. I honestly think they look an attractive price at 23.00 on Betfair, granted they are untested at this level but if they start the season well with the players they are talking about bringing in, like Aguero ,Sneijder and Nasri etc bearing in mind their first 6 league games are Swansea, Bolton, Spurs, Wigan, Fulham and Everton, not the toughest i am sure you will agree. They will also need a kind draw but i don't think 23's will be around long, i for one will be looking at laying them off a little later.

In fact i think other than the first 4 in the betting there are a few overpriced teams. Inter @ 40's is another or maybe you fancy one of the french teams to get to the later stages, I wouldn't say a french team will win it but at these prices:-

• Lille - 270.00
• Marseille - 250.00
• Lyon - 300.00

I wouldn't bet against one or two of them reaching the knockout stages,in which case you won't be getting quoted 250's plus.

The golden rule when taking a long position in an anti-post market is remember, you are a trader and the trader cares about profits, he does not care being right or wrong one little bit. If you can keep this mindset when going long and not be tempted into thinking the price has collapsed lets see if they can win it or one more round or anything other than exiting and collecting a profit then you will go far.

Anti-post markets present some fantastic opportunities  for the trader, especially pre-season as the prices have to go one of 2 ways (pedantic people will say all prices have to do this) what i mean is they will certainly move and with so long to go before the event, season in this case, there is no way of telling what is around the corner, signings, departures, injuries, takeovers or suspensions - I could go on.

The point is, the statistics and opinions that these prices are based on are the most vague and loose prices you will see at any time in the sporting calender. Bookmakers are good yes, but they cannot see the future - well not a year into the future when not seeing a ball kicked for 3 months and not seeing the new teams squads play a single game or even who will be in those squads etc etc etc

To summarise.

• Look for prices you deem to be far too good an opportunity to turn down.
• If the trade is good, it will find you and make it almost impossible not to enter. ( your trading instincts should take over)
• Never treat an anti-post position as a "bet" going long requires the same discipline as any other trade, just because it seems so far away from now, that time will come sooner than you think so have an exit strategy in place.
• It's not about being right with your selections it is about using the selection to position yourself in a profitable situation.

       And finally,

• Green is for show, exits are for dough.

Regards
Fluffnut.

Pigeonholing sportsmen - advantage or a hindrance?

I have been doing a lot of thinking lately and am trying to work out if putting certain players down as having a particular mentality when the pressure is on is a good thing or if it is best to just base decisions on what is currently happening as players mindset will undoubtedly change at different times of their careers and in some cases even vary between competitions.

A good example is Rory McIlroy. After watching him completely smash the field to pieces in the first 3 rounds of the masters earlier in the year only to capitulate on the last day, i instantly put him in the "bottler" section of sportsmen. The benefit of putting players in pigeon holes is that markets almost never factor this into the prices they offer thus the shrewd trader can spot these opportunities and if necessary take a position based on this past information.

After the masters nightmare for McIlroy i thought to myself this knowledge could prove very useful if or when he found himself in a similar scenario and so straight away began looking towards the us open and dreaming of a situation where in my opinion McIlroy's price was far too low.

After literally tearing away from the opposition with golf that was widely described as "from another planet" i kept a keen eye on his price and saw he was about 1.47 with 36 holes still to play. Now, bearing in mind what happened only 2 months previous, you could not be blamed for thinking,exactly as i did that this was far too short a price for a man that had literally fallen apart in front of our very eyes as recently as he had.

On this occasion, I did not take a position as upon further inspection I noticed some massive differences between how he was playing and how he played after leading at the Masters in Augusta. He had an aura about him this time and you could almost sense the confidence being transmitted through your TV into your living room with palpable realism. The swagger that had deserted him was back and it was back in abundance, this was a completely different player who was clearly in a much better place mentally. It was as if he was drawing on the pain and heartache of Augusta and playing like he never wanted to experience these feeling again.

Still....saying all this, in hindsight i regret not trading his price as i thought it presented a massive opportunity and although it would have proved fruitless i would have been sensible enough to exit after he started so well in the 4th round, probably ensuring a big loss if anyone else won and zero loss if McIlroy won as the way he was finishing, the odds on crumbling again (although he was further ahead by this point than he was in the masters) were slim to none.

So, does it pay to pigeonhole sportsmen based on past performances? Taking into account the mental elements (rather than past results as basically all prices are based on past results anyway.) I tend to lean towards wanting to factor them in as I think they give priceless information for taking up future positions. The reason i bring this up is the completely different results you would have have had with McIlroy in the last 2 majors taking up identical positions, at identical times and prices in identical conditions.

To conclude, i think that using any information can only help decision making but the type of sport dictates the type of information you should use, i.e. mental strength is going to play a bigger role in individual sports like golf or tennis than it will in team sports such as football and rugby. In my mind this can only be beneficial and is a tool i will definitely be adding to my repertoire although when to employ this information still seems to be very much open to debate.

Does not get any easier does it!!

Regards
Fluffnut

UPDATE

Recently updated

Discipline tab

Money mangement tab

A quick heads up

Just a quick one, been a few days since i have put anything on here but this is a trading marathon not a sprint. I plan to post lots more tomorrow (8th July 2011) including more on API software with a ladder explantion and soon i will conducting a thorough review of some of the most popular API vendors currently on the market. I will also get some more up on research and will start on Discipline and mathematics.

Been a slow start but I was gauging interest from different forums etc.

Thanks to all who have visited so far and i would like to remind you all that i honestly intend on making this a great place to come and read on areas of trading and make it as enjoyable and informative as possible.
Thanks again.

Kind Regards

Fluffnut

UPDATE

Recent updates

Research tab

Trading software / API's tab