I have been looking at a few of the champions league prices lately and can't help but take notice of the price being quoted for Manchester City. I honestly think they look an attractive price at 23.00 on Betfair, granted they are untested at this level but if they start the season well with the players they are talking about bringing in, like Aguero ,Sneijder and Nasri etc bearing in mind their first 6 league games are Swansea, Bolton, Spurs, Wigan, Fulham and Everton, not the toughest i am sure you will agree. They will also need a kind draw but i don't think 23's will be around long, i for one will be looking at laying them off a little later.
In fact i think other than the first 4 in the betting there are a few overpriced teams. Inter @ 40's is another or maybe you fancy one of the french teams to get to the later stages, I wouldn't say a french team will win it but at these prices:-
The golden rule when taking a long position in an anti-post market is remember, you are a trader and the trader cares about profits, he does not care being right or wrong one little bit. If you can keep this mindset when going long and not be tempted into thinking the price has collapsed lets see if they can win it or one more round or anything other than exiting and collecting a profit then you will go far.
Anti-post markets present some fantastic opportunities for the trader, especially pre-season as the prices have to go one of 2 ways (pedantic people will say all prices have to do this) what i mean is they will certainly move and with so long to go before the event, season in this case, there is no way of telling what is around the corner, signings, departures, injuries, takeovers or suspensions - I could go on.
The point is, the statistics and opinions that these prices are based on are the most vague and loose prices you will see at any time in the sporting calender. Bookmakers are good yes, but they cannot see the future - well not a year into the future when not seeing a ball kicked for 3 months and not seeing the new teams squads play a single game or even who will be in those squads etc etc etc
To summarise.
And finally,In fact i think other than the first 4 in the betting there are a few overpriced teams. Inter @ 40's is another or maybe you fancy one of the french teams to get to the later stages, I wouldn't say a french team will win it but at these prices:-
- Lille - 270.00
- Marseille - 250.00
- Lyon - 300.00
The golden rule when taking a long position in an anti-post market is remember, you are a trader and the trader cares about profits, he does not care being right or wrong one little bit. If you can keep this mindset when going long and not be tempted into thinking the price has collapsed lets see if they can win it or one more round or anything other than exiting and collecting a profit then you will go far.
Anti-post markets present some fantastic opportunities for the trader, especially pre-season as the prices have to go one of 2 ways (pedantic people will say all prices have to do this) what i mean is they will certainly move and with so long to go before the event, season in this case, there is no way of telling what is around the corner, signings, departures, injuries, takeovers or suspensions - I could go on.
The point is, the statistics and opinions that these prices are based on are the most vague and loose prices you will see at any time in the sporting calender. Bookmakers are good yes, but they cannot see the future - well not a year into the future when not seeing a ball kicked for 3 months and not seeing the new teams squads play a single game or even who will be in those squads etc etc etc
To summarise.
- Look for prices you deem to be far too good an opportunity to turn down.
- If the trade is good, it will find you and make it almost impossible not to enter. ( your trading instincts should take over)
- Never treat an anti-post position as a "bet" going long requires the same discipline as any other trade, just because it seems so far away from now, that time will come sooner than you think so have an exit strategy in place.
- It's not about being right with your selections it is about using the selection to position yourself in a profitable situation.
- Green is for show, exits are for dough.
Regards
Fluffnut.
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