Chelsea v Barcelona

Well, tonight's champions league semi final features Chelsea against Barcelona and on paper looks a mouth watering tie. The only problem we have is deciding how we are going to make money from it. Chelsea are an unprecedented 5.5 to back on betfair and i cannot remember seeing them at such a big price at home before ever. I appreciate they are playing the top footballing club side on the planet but they are not a 9/2 shot against anyone, especially at the bridge.

A couple of solid looking markets that have some appeal and i may look further into are:

• Over 2.5 - currently 1.93 (Barcelona games normally average about 1.4/1.5ish)

• Barcelona to qualify - available to lay @ 1.19. (this is far to low with an away leg to play first in my opinion and i believe this will be a profitable trade and easily greened up during the first leg depending on how the game is progressing)

• Over 3.5 looks like it may be worth a squeak @ 3.3 and lay off after a couple, again, depending on how the game is progressing.  

•  Lay 0-0 HT @ 3.4. Once more Barcelona games are normally much higher than this so i feel that advantage needs to be taken with such low liability compared to an average Barce game. Chelsea are also more than capable of finding the net multiple times in Europe at home and have the fire power to hurt the Spaniards very vulnerable back line.

• There is always the possibility of either backing Chelsea at their current high price and laying off later on or laying Barce, whichever is your preference. ( you won't be seeing these 2 teams being quoted at 5.5 and 1.74 respectively very often.

• Of course laying the draw is always an option although this might not be too profitable should Chelsea take the lead as they are the dog and draw price may not contract as much as expected. 

These are all obvious options for the game tonight although i am probably more inclined to go with over 3.5 or over 2.5 options as i feel there is a great deal of risk in trading either team. If i had to trade one team i would be backing Chelsea now and laying off pre-kick off or during game. I think they have a better chance tonight, particularly being at home then their price would suggest and surely if they are to progress from this tie overall they would HAVE to get a result tonight to have any chance going to Spain.

Whatever market you ultimately decide to get involved with good luck and here's to greening up.

Regards
Fluffnut

Barcelona too short??

Im going to keep this brief as kick off is only minutes away but all week i just can't find a good reason to back Barcelona tonight aganst Milan and due to this i will definetly be laying Barce, currently 1.25-1.26 but even slighty lower in the "to qualify" market - 1.22-1.23. The price would be understandable if playing a european minnow but they are playing Milan for god sake and i honeslty think the prices are completely wrong for this game tonight. They haven't even got the luxury of an away goal to play with so anything Milan do Barcelona will have to beter and i don't think they will.

Lay Barcelona to qualify @ what is now 1.22 and get out at expected profit range or whatever criteria it is you use.

Regards
Fluffnut